The Nordic M&A market: From uncertainty to accepted risk
Claes-Henrik Bjuhrberger
by Claes-Henrik Bjuhrberger
After several years marked by uncertainty, the Nordic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is experiencing a clear increase in activity on both the buy and sell side. Compared to the past two to three years, market participants have largely accepted that geopolitical turbulence, macroeconomic volatility, and shifting global conditions are no longer temporary disruptions but part of a new long-term normal.
One important driver is the return of financing. Swedish commercial banks are once again willing to provide acquisition financing, and are actively engaging in growth-oriented bank relationships. Combined with stabilising inflation (now trending below the 2% target in Sweden and expectations of lower interest rates, the financing environment has become more supportive of transactions. Market sentiment can be best described as cautiously positive, with high-profile events such as Klarna’s initial public offering (IPO) serving as psychological milestones.
Valuation expectations have also begun to normalise. After years of turbulence caused by Covid 19, supply chain disruptions, tariffs, and regional conflict, many owners of privately held companies are experiencing fatigue. For some, an exit has become a strategic solution rather than a purely financial optimisation. Buyers, in turn, are increasingly focused on resilience – seeking businesses with stable cash flows, strong positions in their value chains, and an ability to withstand external shocks. While valuation gaps still exist in individual cases, expectations around pricing and deal structures have become more aligned overall.
On the buyer side, competition within Sweden has intensified over the past five years. This has led established serial acquirers – such as Indutrade, AddLife, and Lifco – to increasingly pursue targets outside national borders, particularly within Europe. Industrial buyers continue to acquire locally to strengthen market positions, while new buyer constellations are emerging, often with highly specialised acquisition strategies focused on specific niches or transaction types.
Generational change remains a powerful structural driver of Nordic M&A. Many business owners belong to the post-war generation, making ownership transitions inevitable. Municipalities, as well as state-backed institutions like Almi and Almi Invest, have become more active in supporting succession planning to safeguard employment, tax bases, and long-term business continuity.
Deal structures have also evolved. Reinvestments by sellers are now a recurring buyer preference, designed to align incentives, reduce capital binding, and secure continued engagement from former owners. While buyers often seek majority or full ownership to maintain operational control, these hybrid structures reflect a more flexible and pragmatic approach to transactions.
Cross-border Nordic activity remains strong. Danish and Finnish buyers are increasingly active in Sweden, and consolidation is clearly visible in sectors such as accounting, auditing, and legal services, and recently driven by active investment vehicles like Axcel.
Preparedness has become a decisive factor for sellers. In a weaker economic climate, buyers place less emphasis on aspirational growth stories and more weight on documented cash flow, contractual robustness, intellectual property, and operational transparency. Boards and owners are increasingly aware that successful exits require early preparation and verifiable documentation.
Finally, technology is reshaping the M&A process itself. AI-driven tools enable buyers to screen targets more efficiently using public data, while broader access to virtual data rooms has improved transparency and structure even in smaller transactions. Looking ahead, short-term uncertainty will persist as forecasting remains challenging. Over the longer term, however, the fundamentals endure: stable cash flows, recurring customers, defensible market positions, and professional advisory support will continue to underpin a resilient Nordic M&A market.
XLNC member firm CorptradeGöteborg, SwedenT: +46 76 211 70 38Corporate Finance, Strategy
Claes-Henrik Bjuhrberger is Founder and CEO of Corptrade, a Nordic M&A advisory firm focused on owner-led companies, succession planning, and mid-market transactions. Contact Claes-Henrik.
